Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
